Movie Brew: Oscars 2019 Predictions
Welcome to Sherri’s predictions for the 2019 Academy Awards.
I have watched 9 of the 15 films in the list below, and for those I haven’t, I found extended movie clips on YouTube. For all the acting nominations I have linked to the winners/spoiler videos for your viewing.
Without further ado, the Academy Award goes to:
**in my opinion**
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Winner: Regina King. King’s performance in Beale Street is the epitome of the strong, protective, supportive mother we have or want. She hits every note perfectly. She deserved her Golden Globe for the work she did in this role.
Spoiler: Emma Stone (Abigail) or Rachel Weisz (Lady Sarah) as dueling companions to Queen Anne. Stone won the SAG Award & Weisz won the BAFTA however King was not nominated for either award. Their performances are strong, but they are also prior year Oscar winners, so I believe this leaves the award for King.
Best Supporting Actor
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Winner: Mahershala Ali. Whether you love or hate the movie, it cannot be denied that Ali’s performance as Dr. Don Shirley in Green Book is amazing. The role required him to be subdued which is different from many of the other roles I have seen from him in recent years. It doesn’t hurt that he has won every major award this year for this role.
Spoiler: Sam Elliott. Bobby is the quiet road manager and caretaker to a celebrity brother that hides his jealousy behind a stone façade until pushed. This is Elliott’s first nomination in a 50-year long career. This is the first chance the Academy has had to honor him and would be more of an overall career award. Bolstering my case, Ali just won the Oscar in this category 2 years ago, so the voters may want to award someone else. Also, if there are going to be any surprises during the Oscars this is usually the category in which it happens.
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Winner: Glenn Close. Close is the wife of a Nobel Peace Prize-winning author; she has ghostwritten his books. In every scene, her rage and discontent at her station in life is there just under the surface. She has been nominated seven times since 1982, losing the award to everyone from Meryl Streep to Cher. This Oscar is a career award.
Spoiler: Olivia Colman. As an ailing Queen Anne, Colman delivers in every scene. She won the BAFTA over Close so there is a possibility she could win the Oscar.
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Winner: Rami Malek. This is his year, he was won every award this season for disappearing into the eccentric persona of Freddie Mercury.
Spoiler: Bradley Cooper. The academy loves it when an actor stretches himself and as Jackson Maine this is far different from than anything Cooper has done in recent years. I also believe this could happen due to the snub in the Directing Category.
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice
Winner: Spike Lee. BlacKkKlansman is a great film and deserves awards. It has the look and feel of a film made in the 70s while ensuring it connects to events today. However, Lee will win this award for all the films he wasn’t nominated for in his 41-year career.
Spoiler: Alfonso Cuarón. Roma is beautifully shot and the current industry darling. It doesn’t hurt that he has won every award so far this season.
Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. This is a trope filled superhero origin story, yet it remixes Spider-Man’s race, sex, age etc, thus giving the audience a new series of stories to view. The animation in this film feels like a comic book come to life and the cultural, artistic and emotional impact of this film cannot be understated. ‘Anyone can wear the mask’ indeed.
Spoiler: Incredibles 2. A long-awaited sequel that lives up to the original. If this sneaks the award it’s totally due to nostalgia.
Notes: This year’s Best Picture competition is wide open with no one film winning all (or most) the preliminary awards. The Writer’s Guild did not give their award to any of these films. My list is in the order of which film is most likely to win top prize:
Roma: As mentioned above it is the current industry darling and has been building momentum as the season has progressed. The film has the most wins among the preliminary awards including the BAFTA & Director’s Guild Award. It was not nominated for Best Picture at the Golden Globes due to the Hollywood Foreign Press rules.
Green Book: While the plot is racially insensitive in 2019, the movie has brilliant performances by the leads and is well directed. It has won the Golden Globe and Producers Guild Award, so it makes for a strong second choice.
Black Panther: Random, I know, but the film won the Screen Actors Guild Award’s for the acting ensemble, their version of Best Picture. All the actors vote for this award, so I do see a path for Panther to take the statue.
Bohemian Rhapsody: On the strength of the music of Queen and amazing edits of the concerts Rhapsody could take the momentum from the Golden Globe win into the top prize.
The Favourite: There seems to be a ground swell for this film. Where the conversation early in the year was about A Star is Born or Bohemian Rhapsody, the conversation has moved to this movie. It seems this film is could make a last-minute dash to the award.
BlacKkKlansman: Actually, I think this one ties with The Favourite for 5th place. It’s a great film that is well acted and directed that is definitely of yesterday and today. Depending on how the votes are weighted I can this one sneaking the top award. If Lee wins Best Director I would push this one further up the list.
A Star is Born: I think the Oscar buzz for this film peaked too soon. It deserves the nomination and all the talk, but other films were released later that overshadowed this movie as the race nears finish line.
Vice: I have no reason to believe this film will win, there are stronger films in this category.
Those are my thoughts. I’m here all week to defend my choices. The Oscar Award ceremony airs this Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 8 PM EST on ABC. Come back Monday and see how I did!
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